确定性理论在雷达型号识别中的应用

雷达型号识别是雷达对抗情报侦察的首要工作,是近一步分析雷达用途及相关武器系统的基础,也是高层次上的态势评估和威胁估计的主要依据.针对现代战争中电磁信号环境的复杂性,利用单一传感器很难对雷达型号进行准确识别,而基于确定性理论的不确定推理技术能将多个传感器在多个周期的侦察信息进行融合,所以采用确定性理论的数据融合技术,基于确定性理论的组合规则,采用分层式融合算法对雷达型号进行识别.仿真结果表明,该方法的识别结果令人满意,使采用单一传感器可能存在的无法识别或误识别等现象得到了明显的改善.     

《军事历史研究》20年载文分析

本文以《军事历史研究》创刊20年来所发表1898篇文章为对象,对其栏目、作者和注释进行了详细的统计与分析,期望从中归纳出该刊的载文特点。     

舆论战的心理学解读

通过舆论传播平台传递信息,用以作用于受众的思想或心理,从而达到征服人心的目的,是舆论战的本质特征。利用宣传心理学的原理综合研究信息源、信息的性质和受众的特点这三个要素,是提升舆论战效能的必由之路。     

基于改进TOPSIS法的维修保障系统效能评估研究

维修保障系统涉及因素众多,对其进行效能评估是一项非常复杂的问题.在分析TOPSIS及其改进方法的基础上,构建了维修保障系统效能评估指标体系,应用改进TOPSIS法对维修保障系统效能进行了综合评估,并将评估结果与AHP和突变评价法的结果进行比较,结论一致.为维修保障系统效能评估问题寻求出一种新的方法,其评估结果可为决策提供定量依据.     

Better is the Neighbor?

Abstract

This study applies the Sequential Panel Selection Method (SPSM), to investigate the convergence properties of the military expenditure of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) during the period of 1990–2015. Compared to the traditional methods, SPSM considers fundamentally general spatial homogeneous and heterogeneous relationships with countries and examines the evolution of military expenditure. We find that four-fifths of NATO member countries have been convergent with the UK, but no country’s military expenditure is convergent with the US. This means that there is no significant linkage effect in the US for NATO military expenditure. While they are allies of the US, the majority of NATO member countries’ military expenditures are consistent with UK military expenditure. The main reasons are due to the geographical space layout and the international relationship convergence. The results indicate that more than four-fifths of NATO member countries have been coordinated with convergence theory and spillover effect.     

A theory of war finance

This paper analyses the financial and war‐spending policies of a state that faces a conflict in which defeat would result in the loss of sovereign power and in which the material consequences, conditional on avoiding defeat, are stochastic. The analysis takes explicit account of the historical experiences of lenders, who face debt repudiation if the state to whom they have lent is defeated and who also face partial default if the material consequences of the war are unfavorable for the debtor state, even if it avoids defeat. In this analysis, the state uses war debt to smooth expected consumption intertemporally in response to temporary war spending, and the state also uses contingent debt servicing to insure realized consumption against the risk associated with the material consequences of the war. An important innovation in the analysis is to treat the equilibrium amount of war spending, the state's resulting probability of avoiding defeat, as well as the equilibrium amount of borrowing as a set of endogenous variables to be determined simultaneously.     

Comparison between constant‐stress and step‐stress accelerated life tests under Time Constraint

By running life tests at higher stress levels than normal operating conditions, accelerated life testing (ALT) quickly yields information on the lifetime distribution of a test unit. The lifetime at the design stress is then estimated through extrapolation using a regression model. In constant‐stress testing, a unit is tested at a fixed stress level until failure or the termination time point of test, whereas step‐stress testing allows the experimenter to gradually increase the stress levels at some prefixed time points during the test. In this work, the optimal k‐level constant‐stress and step‐stress ALTs are compared for the exponential failure data under complete sampling and Type‐I censoring. The objective is to quantify the advantage of using the step‐stress testing relative to the constant‐stress one. Assuming a log‐linear life–stress relationship with the cumulative exposure model for the effect of changing stress in step‐stress testing, the optimal design points are determined under C/D/A‐optimality criteria. The efficiency of step‐stress testing to constant‐stress one is then discussed in terms of the ratio of optimal objective functions based on the information matrix. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 00: 000–000, 2013     

战时装备维修保障资源优化模型

维修资源在抢修过程中的分配决定了抢修活动的平均处理时间和等待时间,针对抢修实施时维修资源的分配,研究资源的优化配置使抢修时间最小的问题.在抢修过程中使抢修时间最小的目标和约束条件下,提出了资源配置优化的排队模型,并结合遗传算法给出了求解最优配置模型的方法,通过实例分析说明了模型和方法的应用情况.资源配置优化模型和算法已成功应用于集群装备保障决策系统的开发.     

脉冲幅度特性分析的相控阵雷达识别技术

为有效识别相控阵雷达,提出了一种基于截获脉冲幅度特性分析的识别方法。该方法根据相控阵雷达与常规机械扫描雷达的扫描方式存在很大差异的特点,建立侦察设备截获脉冲的幅度模型,并通过仿真得到不同体制雷达被截获的脉冲幅度特性。然后求得不同体制雷达被截获的脉冲序列幅度特性与正弦序列幅度特性的相似系数,以此为依据来识别相控阵雷达。最后,通过比较实验证明了该方法的有效性。     

基于行为建模的移动代理性能评估

针对移动代理的分布式应用性能评估需求,建立了移动代理生命周期中主要行为的网络负载模型和时间消耗模型.在3种典型分布式应用想定下,分析了基于C＼S模式和移动代理模式的应用实现基本过程,对两种模式下的网络负载和执行时间进行了仿真比较,结果证明了在访问节点数量较多,网络传输速率较低时,移动代理模式的具有更好性能.